STOP THE PRESSES! Sens edge an opponent in Powerplays for the first time this season

It was bound to happen eventually, and personally, I was hoping they would make it to the twenty game mark, but alas the streak is over!  Overshadowing their comeback win against the mighty Bruins last night was the fact that the Ottawa Senators had more power plays than their opponent for the first time this season, a mere 19 games (or 23% of the season) in to the 2013-2014 schedule.

This landmark accomplishment was in doubt, even late in the 3rd period.  With just over 3-minutes to play, and the power plays notched at one a piece, Dennis Seidenberg knocked Bobby Ryan out of the game with an elbow to the face.  With the stance set by the league on headshots, especially illegal ones involving an extended elbow with the head as the principle point of contact, the debate amongst most fans would be whether Seidenberg would receive a 5 minute major and a match penalty, just a 5 minute major, or maybe a more lenient double minor or minor penalty.  Those who have watched all 19 Senators games this season would have correctly predicted the actual outcome: No penalty.

Following the precedent set by this non-call, Jarome Iginla then decided to make a similar hit on the very next play, throwing his shoulder into the head of Cory Conacher.  Iginla was justified in questioning the call, given that it was much less dangerous than that of Seidenberg, but you could give the benefit of the doubt to the officials in recognizing that they missed the first one, and tried to make it up with this one.

So the Senators have a 100% winning record in games where they receive an advantage in powerplays.  If that trend holds, that is 4 wins over the course of the season.  Cue the Woo Hoo music!

UPDATE: I made light of the Seidenberg elbow because it seemed like a given that a suspension was inevitable.  After waiting all day, it is now confirmed that despite it being: 1) An illegal hit using an elbow 2) A hit that targeted the head, 3) The head of the opponent was the principle point of contact, and 4) an injury resulted from the hit; Dennis Seidenberg will face absolutely no disciplinary action.  I was puzzled by the decision to suspend Eric Gryba in last year's playoffs, but I thought it would at least clear up what was suspendable in the future.  I am now really starting wonder which Ottawa Senator slept with Gary Bettman's wife.

Karlsson vs. Subban - Thursday Night Matchup

The first time I saw these two players play was live at the 2008 World Juniors Hockey Championship.  While all the hype was about Victor Hedman coming into the tournament, Karlsson and Subban were by far the standout players once the games had been played, along with the amazing performance of Jordan Eberle.

On Thursday evening they meet up again, and unlike in last year's playoffs, both players appear to be fully fit (although rumour is that Karlsson is still well away from 100% recovered from his Achilles tear, which is a scary thought).

Karlsson comes into the game with 17 points in 15 games, and Subban with 15 points in 16 games.  All other contenders are well off this pace.

But I want to draw particular attention to Karlsson's numbers.  15 games in, during a period in which Ottawa have not played good hockey, Karlsson is on pace for 93 points.  93.  I am always wary of projections, because there are a lot of games left to play, and chances are he will cool down, but if the team as a whole starts clicking as it was expected to do with the additions of Ryan and MacArthur, it is possible that his point output could also increase.

So keeping in mind that this is a longshot, how significant would a 93 point season from a defenseman be?

Put it this way, only 7 players in the history of the NHL have ever achieved it.  They are:
- Bobby Orr
- Paul Coffey
- Ray Bourque
- Denis Potvin
- Al MacInnis
- Brian Leetch
- and Phil Housley

That is pretty good company.  Looking forward to the Matchup Thursday night.  Which one of these young stars do you think will put in the better performance?

"The refs have it in for us!" - Is there any truth to this statement?

UPDATE (OCT 28th) - 11 games into the season and Ottawa still haven't played one game in which they have had more power plays than their opponent.  They are now -33:18, still almost double the 29th place team.  They are also one of 3 NHL teams that have not had 1 second of 5-on-3 time.  Colorado meanwhile, have plummeted from 6th down to 26th in PP-PK time, upholding their unenviable trend from the past 4 seasons.
____________

As a Senators fan who recognizes my own bias, I sometimes think that I am guilty of discounting legitimate issues, attributing my concerns to my own fan allegiances.  But after watching another game in which it seemed the Ottawa Senators could not buy a powerplay, I started trying to remember the last times the Senators played a game in which they had more powerplays than the opposition.  It hasn't happened in 5 games this season (BUF 4-3, TOR 6-1, LAK 6-4, SJ 5-3, ANA 5-1).  And come to think of it, it hasn't happened very often, in a long time.  It seemed like I had to go back to the days of Jacques Martin, when Ottawa was winning Presidents trophies, when Ottawa was spending more time on a regular basis on the attack rather than penalty killing.

So I started doing some digging, and the statistics are actually quite shocking.  In this case perception is reality.  There are two teams that would seem to have reason to ask questions about the consistency with which they find themselves being penalized and not getting powerplays.

These two teams are Ottawa and Colorado.

I used the Powerplay time to Penalty Kill time gap as the preferred indicator, and stats are recent up to the morning of Monday October 14th.  The PP:PK time stat is not without its flaws: Teams that score early into powerplays would decrease their PP time, and teams that allow goals early in penalty kills would decrease their PK time.  But it accurately allows us to overlook the meaningless penalties assessed in the dying seconds of a game, when the teams don't actually gain an advantage, and also accounts for "neutralized powerplays", when a team has a powerplay cut short by being assessed a penalty during their own powerplay.  Most importantly, the focus on the gap means that it is looking both at penalties taken, and power plays awarded.  A team could be a "dirty" team that takes lots of penalties or gets assessed lots of fighting majors, but this team could also be receiving an offsetting amount of powerplays and still have a small gap.

So here are some highlights (or maybe lowlights!):

• The Ottawa Senators have not had a season in which they had more Powerplay time than Penalty Kill time since 2006-2007
• Between 2007-2008 and 2013-2014, the Ottawa Senators have spent 352 more minutes killing penalties than playing with a man advantage (This is just shy of 6 full games).  The Colorado Avalanche, during the same stretch spent 103 minutes more killing penalties than playing on the PP.
• In the 2011-2012 season, the Colorado Avalanche were in a league of their own, with a -114 minute PP : PK gap.  The 29th place team had to kill 34 minutes fewer, and the 1st place team (CBJ) were 216 minutes clear of them at +102.
• On average, between 2007-2008 and 2013-2014, the Ottawa Senators have found themselves 27th in the league in the PP : PK time statistic, never reaching higher than 22nd in 2008-2009.  Their second highest finish was 27th.  Colorado Avalanche were on average, 18th during the same span, but ranged as high as 4th and as low as 30th.

What does this mean?

First off, allow me to say that I do not think this to be some kind of conspiracy.  I don't think there is any match-fixing going on, especially not for Ottawa or Colorado games.  But sometimes, statistics can tell a story that suggests there may be some latent influence occurring.  Personally, I think that the fan influence during Montreal and Toronto games take away the home ice edge for 6 to 8 of Ottawa's 41 home games, and the yells and screams for penalties from these particularly boisterous groups of away fans probably gain the opponents some calls.  There is also the issue of reputations and rapport with the refs.  We all remember the publicized instance of Dan O'Rourke calling Erik Karlsson a "diver," and of course there were the Cory Clouston years where the young coach demonstrated an inability to bite his lip and let go of the bad calls in the way that Jacques Martin could (to a fault).  During that time, some of our young players followed suit, joining in on the yapping and probably not earning themselves any benefit-of-the-doubt.  Are there other factors at play?  I don't know, but at least I know that I am not crazy now that I have looked up the stats. Let me know what you think.

Raw spreadsheet data below:

Season	Team	PP : PK time	Ranking in NHL
2013-2014	OTT	-23:53:00	30
	COL	10:12:00	6
2012-2013	OTT	-28:34:00	27
	COL	-68:34:00	29
2011-2012	OTT	-71:39:00	27
	COL	-114:00:00	30
2010-2011	OTT	-74:00:00	29
	COL	-56:01:00	26
2009-2010	OTT	-46:16:00	27
	COL	12:12:00	12
2008-2009	OTT	-24:24:00	22
	COL	08:48:00	16
2007-2008	OTT	-83:02:00	28
	COL	69:38:00	4
2006-2007	OTT	27:15:00	12
	COL	35:04:00	10
Total 2007-2013	OTT	-351:48:00	27.1428571429	Average
	COL	-102:41:00	17.5714285714

Sportchek surprise me and deliver excellent customer service on soccer gear

I am a firm believer in letting businesses know when their poor customer service has led to losing my business.  Well refreshingly, I thought I would share a positive story about Sportchek, stepping up to the plate to honour a warranty on a 13-month old soccer ball.  Here is the letter I wrote to the company:


I am writing in to commend your staff at the Kanata Centrum location.  As someone who has worked extensively in customer service training, I am a discerning consumer, and unfortunately in my day to day shopping experiences I see too many instances where I think that the staff are in desperate need of better training.  Ian, the store manager did an excellent job, as did Lorne, the initial person who took my call.

As an avid soccer player who currently plays on 5 teams, I finally convinced my wife last year that it would be worthwhile investing in a high-end ball, specifically the Tango 12 Fifa official match ball that was used at the Euro 2012.  We are a relatively frugal family, so this was no easy pitch, given that the ball was $150 before tax.  But I told her that for the amount that I play, it would be worth investing in a quality product and also pointed out the 2 year guarantee that came with the Tango 12.

She got it for me for my birthday last year and it was my prized possession for this past year, until after a recent game, I noticed one of the bonds between two of the panels had broken and there was now an open flap revealing the internal bladder.

I know that dealing with manufacturer warranties can be a major headache so I was afraid to break the news to her.  I contacted Adidas and they recommended that I contact the store where it was purchased directly as the first step.  I expected to encounter roadblocks and get policy recited to me about manufacturer warranty vs. retailer warranty etc. and thought I might be faced with a negative situation trying to get this dealt with, based on the average state of customer service at the typical retail chain store.

Lorne took my call and did about as well as I could have coached anybody to do.  He was empathetic to the situation and listened to me.  He said that store policy was a 60 or 90 day return policy, but he also said that they want to do whatever they can to ensure customer satisfaction and he even offered a potential solution.  He checked the inventory and found that there was one Tango 12 left in stock, and he would put it on hold for me until I could bring my defective ball in for the sporting goods manager to inspect.  That way, if the damage did seem to be a legitimate manufacturing defect, I could get the ball switched right away.

I came in and unfortunately the sporting goods manager was not in, so I spoke with Ian at the front cash (not knowing he was the store manager at this point).  I told him the history, and he offered to fill out a work order so that they could speak with Adidas on Monday (since it was the weekend) and go from there, since the ball was no longer covered by the store warranty.  I mentioned my previous conversation with Lorne, and said I would be really appreciative of avoiding another drive to Kanata (since my wife only came this far originally since the 2 sportcheks that were closer did not have the ball in stock originally), and also of avoiding being without my beloved Fifa-match ball for longer than necessary.  Ian was good at letting me know they would do whatever they could to facilitate it as fast as possible, and that he would keep the last in-stock Tango 12 set aside for me.

I figured this was as good as I could hope for, so accepted leaving my ball there to await further word on Monday.  While in the parking lot explaining the situation to my wife, my cellphone rang.  Ian, the store manager was on the line and said that if I was still nearby, to come back and we could switch for the replacement ball right then and there.  He said he thought about it, and didn't want me to have to keep running around and waiting, and that the store would work it out with Adidas directly.  This just absolutely made my day!

It was actually a perfect example of one of the techniques that can be used to maximize customer satisfaction - Empathize, Downplay what can be done, then surpass their expectations with your solution.  Doing this can make a customer happier than if nothing had gone wrong in the first place.

I go through lots of sports equipment, and while price is important to me, good customer service is equally important - Sportchek Kanata stepped up and took ownership of the problem, even though they could have passed the buck to the manufacturer.  I have a soccer blog, I am a prominent player in Ottawa's largest adult soccer league, and I have over 100 teammates if you count my 5 current teams and teams that I sub for.  You can bet on which store I'll be directing people to for their soccer gear from now on, and as you know, word of mouth recommendations from respected peers is one of the best forms of advertising you can get [Note - "Respected" may be a stretch but it sounded good didn;t it?].

Thanks to Ian, Lorne, and Sportchek Kanata Centrum.

Gryba's Suspension is Good News for the Sens

Against the bulk of expert analyst opinion, Eric Gryba was suspended for yesterday's hit on Lars Eller.  This may benefit the Ottawa Senators or any other team facing the Habs.  P.K. Subban was the most dominant player on either team yesterday, and his impact could be the difference in this series.  But if the Gryba hit is used as a benchmark for suspension, then P.K. Subban will have to alter his game which was perilously close to the edge yesterday.

Two hits he laid in the first period appear for example.  The hit on Chris Neil - Personally, I thought it was one of the best hits I've seen in a long time.  Full credit to Chris Neil for popping right back up on that one and trying to pretend that it didn't hurt - The mere fact that he didn't go after Subban right after tells me that it hurt a lot.  Later in the period, Subban tries the same hit in open ice on Dan Pageau - Pageau got his head up at the last minute and narrowly avoided having his jawbone fly into the 3rd row.

Looking at the replay, there is clearly contact with Neil's head, but as with the Gryba hit, (or so it looked to everyone other than Shannahan) it is incidental as the principle point of contact was the body, and then the head.  If Gryba's hit was suspendable, then you can bet there is going to be a very close eye on similar hits that result in incidental head contact in this series.  Subban is an emotional player and could struggle by trying to play more conservatively.  It isn't easy for a player to play contrary to their instinct.  But if Subban continues to fire himself full speed at players, exploding upwards as he did yesterday, he is risking a suspension and the Canadiens lose their best player.

Gryba was a borderline to make the roster, and won't be a huge loss.  But now that a new precedent has been set, in terms of an "acceptable line" for players to follow when hitting, it could be a big impact on these playoffs as a whole.

Gryba vs Eller - Suspension or not?

As a Sens fan, I may not have the most objective view, but some of the reaction of the Habs fans has been absolutely insane:

If the Torres hit last year was 25 games I'd like to see this be 8-12 given Gryba has so suspension history.
— Ben Dugas (@bendu) May 3, 2013

I watched the replay over and over in frame by frame HD - Something about it, even in real time, just did not look as bad as the obviously concerning outcome.  First let me say that I sincerely hope Eller is okay and makes a fast recovery.  He is a talented and fun player to watch, and will be missed for now.

What I saw was a good read by Gryba to identify that Diaz' pass was there to be picked off.  As Eller received the puck, Gryba adjusted his position to initiate contact.  By the time he had reached this point there was no turning back - The two were on course to collide, and Eller was in a terribly vulnerable position.  Could Gryba have backed off?  I think if he had, he would have ended up out of position, and as contact was inevitable at this point, would likely have been called for tripping or kneeing if he tried to pull out.

Points to consider:

• The 5 minute major was a call made on the basis of the outcome - If Neil had have been face down bleeding on the ice after the Subban hit, you bet the same call would have been made in reaction, even though it wasn't a charge, interference, or an elbow.  Both plays happened in a split second, and refs aren't perfect.
• There was contact with the head, but slowing down the replay, it truly looks like the shoulder-to-head contact was secondary to contact at the hips and shoulders - keeping in mind that all of it happened in a split second.  The size difference between the 2 players, and the way Eller was turning as the contact occurred led to the glancing blow that can often be concussion inducing. 
• Watch Gryba's path - He has eyes on the puck, and does not go out of his way to target the head.  He hits a player with the puck, not late and not early.
• The injury to Eller looked like it was largely exacerbated by the way his face hit the ice afterwards, so it would be hard to attribute it to the contact itself.

I think this was an unfortunate accident that resulted from a legitimate hockey play. I don't think any additional discipline will result.  It is yet to be determined if the police will launch an investigation a la Zdeno Chara, but if so the first suspect might be the Bell Centre ice.

Comment and vote in the poll to let me know your opinion!

Warning: Watch with discretion if blood makes you squeamish.

Thanks to @shanessm for the image below:

Hindsight - Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich have played 49 matches in all competitions so far this season, and they have lost only 3 games.  Only one team in those 49 matches managed to keep a clean sheet, and they did it in Munich no less.  I was furious at Arsenal when they lost 3-1 at home in the first leg of their Champions League clash, but in retrospect, I have to say "well done Gunners".  Winning 2-0 in Munich in the second leg fell short of what they needed to advance, but it is miles beyond what anyone else has been able to do to slow down the Germans.  When you go out on away goals (3-3 aggregate) to a team that dispatches Barcelona 7-0 and Juventus 4-0, you have done pretty well.  I hereby apologize for my harsh criticisms earlier.

Take-it-to-the-Bank Prediction - May 2nd

I predict that a Canadian team will be victorious tonight for the first time in the 2013 playoffs, following ugly losses by Toronto and Vancouver yesterday.

But if you ask me to actually go out on a line - Ottawa steal home ice with a 3-2 victory.

Has the Bundesliga surpassed La Liga?

When the draws were set, all the talk was about the seemingly inevitable Champions League final between Real Madrid and Barcelona, another installment of the El Clasico but with the greatest stakes in Europe on the line (For my hockey followers, imagine Colorado vs Detroit at its Claude Lemieux prime, and then play the game in front of 90,000 fans).

Well having watched Bayern Munich handily dismantle my Gunners in the quarter finals, I wasn't so sure.  I thought they looked like one of the strongest teams I had seen in a long while.  Then I watched Borussia Dortmund play for the first time this season - They looked as good if not better.

While I believe that the Barclay's Premier League is the strongest overall league in the world, Real Madrid and Barcelona were arguably the two strongest club teams over the past few years.  The Bundesliga is also top-heavy, but seeing the way the two German teams tore apart the top two Spanish teams in the first leg by a combined 8-1 score, I wonder, has the Bundesliga surpassed La Liga in quality?

You have to go back six years to find the last time Barcelona lost by a 4 goal margin in any competition (May 10, 2007 to Getafe, also 4-0).  Meanwhile Dortmund hung on and scraped by a strong pushback from Real Madrid in the second leg and advance to the Champions League final. Looking at how young this squad is, it is possible that they could become a powerhouse if the team can afford to keep the emerging stars such as Hummels, Lewandowski, Gundogan, and Reus, having already lost Gotze to their German rivals (starting next season).  The reported 37 million euros for that transfer will be a good start.

If any team can bounce back from a 4-0 deficit, it is Barcelona, but failing that we seem poised to see the first ever all-German Champions League final.  Looks like the other leagues have some work to do.

A Guide to the Playoffs for Leafs Fans

By Mark Baldwin

The recent image of Rihanna wearing a heritage Senators jersey around Beverly Hills sent tweets flying all over Ottawa, but also drew a lot of ire from Leafs fans. “Why would she choose the jersey of our bitter rivals instead of the classic blue and white?” so many have asked.  While only "Riri" knows for sure, there is one fact that cannot be overlooked: The last time the Leafs played a playoff game, she was just a 16-year old Barbadian high-school student with a demo tape. She didn't even know what hockey was.  Rihanna is 25 now, a ripe old age for a pop icon; however, the next generation of pop stars could be inspired by the recent groundbreaking news – The Leafs will play in the 2013 Stanley Cup playoffs.

You may be surprised to learn this, but I – a Senators fan – welcome the Leafs back.  Granted, after so many defeats at the hands of the Leafs back in the old NHL, I took some pleasure in those first three or four seasons of failure.  Since then, however, I feel like there is something missing.  The “Battle of Ontario” had become a cold war, but finally, there are some signs of life again.

The playoffs begin shortly, but bear in mind that a lot can change in nine years.  To put things into perspective, as of May 4^th, 2004, the day of the last Maple Leafs playoff game:

·         Downtown Torontonians were outraged that gas prices had risen to 72 cents a litre.

·         The Montreal Expos still existed.

·         Paul Martin was Prime Minister, and Canada had a $9.1 Billion surplus.

·         You had never seen Janet Jackson’s nipple.

The world has changed, and the game itself has changed, and since Ottawa have played in 46 playoff games since 2004, I figure it would only be neighbourly of me to bring all of the Leafs fans up to speed on the modern day ins-and-outs of cheering on your team in the playoffs.

 

The Experience

 

Technology has played a major role in enhancing the playoff experience.  Since 2005, CBC has been broadcasting playoff games in spectacular, crystal clear High Definition Television.  The next best thing to being at a playoff game live, is watching it in High Definition.  You may have gotten a glimpse of the wonders of HDTV in one of the 5 Olympics that have taken place since the Leafs last playoff appearance.

 

Another guilty pleasure that you have been missing out on for the past nine years is the joy of gloating to your friends after a big playoff win.  But wasn't it annoying, time consuming, and expensive to phone all of your friends individually?  Well you are in for a treat.  In 2004, some enterprising business students from Harvard invented a web-based program known as “Facebook” which kicked off the social media revolution.  Now you can use Facebook or Twitter to share your clever quips with all of your friends at once!

 

But won't I need a computer to access these new web-based social media sites?  A valid question from someone who hasn't been to a playoff game since 2004, given that fewer than 5 million people in the world even owned an iPod then.  Little did we know that the iPod would later become the iPod video, and then the iPod touch, and now the iPhone. Since 2008, smartphones like the iPhone have gained more and more market share and are now ubiquitous.  For a low monthly fee, you can access all of the wonders of the internet via your cell phone, right in the Air Canada Centre.  Monitor the scores of the other games, check your email during intermission, tweet photos of the action in real-time – These days, the world is literally at your fingertips.  Budget some time to make the adjustment so you don't find yourself too overwhelmed at that first home game.

 

The Game

 

The game of hockey itself has changed since 2004 – Actually it has changed a number of times.  Here are some of the significant rule changes to keep in mind during the playoffs:  In 2005, a rule was introduced which required teams to play 4-on-4 in overtime, and if five minutes of overtime solved nothing, a shootout would ensue to determine the winner of the game.  What is important for you to note, is that these rules do not apply in the playoffs!  Don't stand up and yell “Too many men!” when the overtime starts, or you will instantly give yourself away as a playoff newbie.

 

There was a time when shooting the puck over the glass was considered a legitimate defensive play, and an effective one for players like Ken Klee and Aki Berg.  Today, heaving the puck into the stands will earn you an automatic two minute stay in the penalty box, even in the playoffs.  Speedy players like Alex Mogilny and Doug Gilmour would have loved playoffs without the 2-line pass rule, but a new generation of Leafs players will finally get to benefit from this new freedom in 2013. In 2005-2006, the NHL began cracking down on holding, hooking, and interference.  For example, if the last Maple Leafs vs. Flyers playoff game from 2004 was replayed today, 83 power plays would have been awarded, and Brian McCabe alone would have amassed 46 penalty minutes.  Fortunately, the Leafs players have had 622 regular season games to adjust to these changes in officiating.

 

In 2012, new rules were introduced concerning faceoff infractions, but since no one understands these rules, including the players, coaches, and referees, you will be no more bewildered by the calls than the fans of the other 29 teams.

 

There you have it Leafs fans – I hope you have found this guide educational and informative.  Having never experienced a playoff drought this long, I can only imagine your level of excitement!  Although a Battle of Ontario seems unlikely for the 2013 playoffs, you know the old saying, make the playoffs and anything can happen... Good luck!