Gryba's Suspension is Good News for the Sens

Against the bulk of expert analyst opinion, Eric Gryba was suspended for yesterday's hit on Lars Eller.  This may benefit the Ottawa Senators or any other team facing the Habs.  P.K. Subban was the most dominant player on either team yesterday, and his impact could be the difference in this series.  But if the Gryba hit is used as a benchmark for suspension, then P.K. Subban will have to alter his game which was perilously close to the edge yesterday.

Two hits he laid in the first period appear for example.  The hit on Chris Neil - Personally, I thought it was one of the best hits I've seen in a long time.  Full credit to Chris Neil for popping right back up on that one and trying to pretend that it didn't hurt - The mere fact that he didn't go after Subban right after tells me that it hurt a lot.  Later in the period, Subban tries the same hit in open ice on Dan Pageau - Pageau got his head up at the last minute and narrowly avoided having his jawbone fly into the 3rd row.

Looking at the replay, there is clearly contact with Neil's head, but as with the Gryba hit, (or so it looked to everyone other than Shannahan) it is incidental as the principle point of contact was the body, and then the head.  If Gryba's hit was suspendable, then you can bet there is going to be a very close eye on similar hits that result in incidental head contact in this series.  Subban is an emotional player and could struggle by trying to play more conservatively.  It isn't easy for a player to play contrary to their instinct.  But if Subban continues to fire himself full speed at players, exploding upwards as he did yesterday, he is risking a suspension and the Canadiens lose their best player.

Gryba was a borderline to make the roster, and won't be a huge loss.  But now that a new precedent has been set, in terms of an "acceptable line" for players to follow when hitting, it could be a big impact on these playoffs as a whole.

Gryba vs Eller - Suspension or not?

As a Sens fan, I may not have the most objective view, but some of the reaction of the Habs fans has been absolutely insane:

If the Torres hit last year was 25 games I'd like to see this be 8-12 given Gryba has so suspension history.
— Ben Dugas (@bendu) May 3, 2013

I watched the replay over and over in frame by frame HD - Something about it, even in real time, just did not look as bad as the obviously concerning outcome.  First let me say that I sincerely hope Eller is okay and makes a fast recovery.  He is a talented and fun player to watch, and will be missed for now.

What I saw was a good read by Gryba to identify that Diaz' pass was there to be picked off.  As Eller received the puck, Gryba adjusted his position to initiate contact.  By the time he had reached this point there was no turning back - The two were on course to collide, and Eller was in a terribly vulnerable position.  Could Gryba have backed off?  I think if he had, he would have ended up out of position, and as contact was inevitable at this point, would likely have been called for tripping or kneeing if he tried to pull out.

Points to consider:

• The 5 minute major was a call made on the basis of the outcome - If Neil had have been face down bleeding on the ice after the Subban hit, you bet the same call would have been made in reaction, even though it wasn't a charge, interference, or an elbow.  Both plays happened in a split second, and refs aren't perfect.
• There was contact with the head, but slowing down the replay, it truly looks like the shoulder-to-head contact was secondary to contact at the hips and shoulders - keeping in mind that all of it happened in a split second.  The size difference between the 2 players, and the way Eller was turning as the contact occurred led to the glancing blow that can often be concussion inducing. 
• Watch Gryba's path - He has eyes on the puck, and does not go out of his way to target the head.  He hits a player with the puck, not late and not early.
• The injury to Eller looked like it was largely exacerbated by the way his face hit the ice afterwards, so it would be hard to attribute it to the contact itself.

I think this was an unfortunate accident that resulted from a legitimate hockey play. I don't think any additional discipline will result.  It is yet to be determined if the police will launch an investigation a la Zdeno Chara, but if so the first suspect might be the Bell Centre ice.

Comment and vote in the poll to let me know your opinion!

Warning: Watch with discretion if blood makes you squeamish.

Thanks to @shanessm for the image below:

Hindsight - Arsenal vs. Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich have played 49 matches in all competitions so far this season, and they have lost only 3 games.  Only one team in those 49 matches managed to keep a clean sheet, and they did it in Munich no less.  I was furious at Arsenal when they lost 3-1 at home in the first leg of their Champions League clash, but in retrospect, I have to say "well done Gunners".  Winning 2-0 in Munich in the second leg fell short of what they needed to advance, but it is miles beyond what anyone else has been able to do to slow down the Germans.  When you go out on away goals (3-3 aggregate) to a team that dispatches Barcelona 7-0 and Juventus 4-0, you have done pretty well.  I hereby apologize for my harsh criticisms earlier.

Take-it-to-the-Bank Prediction - May 2nd

I predict that a Canadian team will be victorious tonight for the first time in the 2013 playoffs, following ugly losses by Toronto and Vancouver yesterday.

But if you ask me to actually go out on a line - Ottawa steal home ice with a 3-2 victory.